Así serán las pensiones con Petro

Por: Juan Carlos Hurtado Fonseca

El Pacto Histórico plantea reformar el sistema para que haya complementariedad y no competencia entre Colpensiones y los fondos privados. De esta manera, se garantiza la pensión para quienes la tienen y un bono pensional para que el resto de adultos mayores salga de la pobreza

La reforma pensional que plantea el candidato Gustavo Petro es uno de los temas más polémicos en la actual contienda presidencial. Apenas dejó ver algunos de sus pormenores iniciaron las réplicas y los debates sobre la propuesta.

Fue así que, en debate televisado, el candidato explicó que del total de personas en edad de pensionarse, solamente alrededor de un 30% cuenta con pensión pagada por el Estado. Por consiguiente, el objetivo del sistema debe ser la pensión para quienes la tienen y un bono pensional para que el resto salga de la pobreza.

En términos generales, la idea es pasar a “un sistema de pensiones unificado mayoritariamente público, complementario no competitivo, que garantice el derecho fuera del negocio”, como lo expresa el plan de Gobierno del Pacto Histórico. Es decir, no se eliminarán los fondos privados, sino que estos se complementarán con la administradora del Estado: Colpensiones.

Gustavo Petro atentado: Gustavo Petro denuncia atentado en su contra y  suspende visita a Pereira | Pereira | Caracol Radio

De esta manera, se coadyuvará a los trabajadores de la economía popular y del cuidado, a las mujeres sin pensión y a quienes no pueden contribuir por sus bajos ingresos.

Para esto, el Pacto plantea un sistema público universal de pilares. En primer lugar, está el Pilar solidario básico que garantizará “un bono pensional no contributivo equivalente a medio salario mínimo para los hombres y mujeres adultos mayores que hoy día no tienen derecho a la pensión”.

Como segunda medida, se construirá el Pilar contributivo para que toda persona trabajadora, incluyendo las de mayores ingresos, coticen a Colpensiones una suma calculada sobre la base de uno a cuatro Salarios Mínimos, “lo que asegurará una pensión básica bajo el régimen de prima media”. Y, en tercer lugar, quienes tengan ingresos superiores a cuatro Salarios Mínimos decidirán donde cotizar el excedente. En este pilar participarán las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones.

Además, se respetarán las actuales pensiones, no se afectarán los derechos adquiridos, no se incrementará la edad ni se modificará la pensión de sobrevivencia para cónyuges, hijos con discapacidad, estudiantes y demás beneficiarios.

Observaciones de los detractores

Ahora bien, la propuesta se hace con base en las necesidades de la sociedad, en sugerencias del Banco Mundial y de expertos del país. No obstante, varios contradictores de la proposición han dicho que esta no es realizable ya que no se puede contar con los dineros de los fondos privados porque pertenecen a los afiliados, no son dineros públicos y se configuraría una expropiación.

Jorge Llano, exvicepresidente de Asofondos, respondió a la propuesta intentando mostrar las ventajas de los fondos privados sobre Colpensiones, y afirmó que del total de afiliados de Colpensiones el 90% no accederá a pensión por los requisitos exigidos. Por el contrario, en los fondos privados hay 18 millones de afiliados y se pensionará el 25%.

El economista Ricardo Bonilla desmiente a Llano asegurando que en Colpensiones se pensiona el doble de gente que la que lo hace en Asofondos. “En los fondos privados hay siete millones de cotizantes del último mes; en Colpensiones, dos millones 700 mil cotizantes del último mes. En Colpensiones hay millón y medio de pensionados de los cuales en 2021 ingresaron 62 mil personas. En los fondos privados, 247 mil pensionados, de los cuales el año pasado ingresaron 37 mil. Es decir, que en Colpensiones se pensiona el doble de gente que la que se pensiona en Asofondos”.

Ante el argumento de que se usará el dinero de los fondos privados para un bono pensional y que esto sería una expropiación, Bonilla aclara que no es cierto, que la plata de las cotizaciones es ahorro forzoso de destinación específica: “No se puede destinar a algo distinto que pagar pensión. Lo que significa que el subsidio debe salir de una reforma tributaria. El subsidio saldrá de impuestos y las pensiones de las cotizaciones”.

Por consiguiente, la reforma consiste en aplicar la propuesta del Banco Mundial, sobre el sistema de pilares en el que hay un régimen subsidiado que se paga con impuestos y uno contributivo que se cubre con cotizaciones.

“En el régimen, en el contributivo, actualmente es en competencia entre los fondos de capitalización y Colpensiones. La propuesta es que no compitan, sino que sean complementarios. Por estar compitiendo los afiliados están en los fondos y los pensionados en Colpensiones; quienes cotizan, la mayor proporción están en los fondos y un porcentaje menor en Colpensiones. Por lo tanto, para pagar pensiones Colpensiones utiliza lo que recauda en cotizaciones y el resto se lo tiene que pedir al Gobierno. Para que no tenga que pedirle al Gobierno, en el sistema de pilares lo que hoy se recauda como cotizaciones entre fondos privados y Colpensiones pagará perfectamente la nómina de los privados y el estatal. Así no tendrá el Gobierno que aportar plata”, argumenta Bonilla.

Más adultos, menos jóvenes

Por otra parte, desde Fedesarrollo se ha propuesto el aumento de la de pensión. Para el economista y analista Santiago Castaño Salas lo primordial es aumentar la cobertura, porque se busca que la pensión sea un derecho.

Asimismo, sobre la financiación o sostenibilidad de la reforma, Castaño aclara que para que la pensión sea un derecho en ningún país estas se cubren solo con cotizaciones, “siempre hay un gasto fiscal. De hecho, el gasto fiscal en Colpensiones es del 1,3 del PIB, mientras en otros países puede estar entre 8 y 10 puntos”.

Otro de los argumentos de los contradictores de la propuesta de reforma pensional, es que no es sostenible el sistema en el que se pagan pensiones a los adultos mayores con el dinero de los cotizantes jóvenes, “porque cada vez hay menos jóvenes y más adultos mayores. Vivimos más tiempo y estamos teniendo menos hijos. (…) Están tratando de eliminar el ahorro que es lo único que tenemos para pagar pensiones futuras y dejando una deuda para nuestros jóvenes del futuro donde nadie va a pagar por ellos, y quedan sin su ahorro porque no les permitieron ahorrar para su vejez”, argumenta el exvicepresidente de Asofondos, Jorge Llano.

Santiago Castaño responde que es falso que la propuesta del Pacto quiera eliminar el ahorro: “Se van a generar mecanismos que permitan acumular reservas o un ahorro que permita pensionar al resto de la sociedad, por lo que se plantea que los activos de los fondos privados no se usen para gasto de pensiones, sino que se mantengan como ahorro o fondo de amortiguación”

Para Ricardo Bonilla el razonamiento de Jorge Llano no es cierto, porque entre las mujeres que hoy tienen más de 47 años y hombres mayores de 52, es decir, que están en los 10 últimos años para acceder a una pensión, hay cuatro millones de colombianos, de los cuales solo está cotizando millón y medio, que son quienes se pensionarían en la próxima década.

“No necesariamente esa cantidad de gente se va a pensionar, porque está demostrado que solo lo consigue una cuarta parte. Por eso, de lo que se trata es de lograr condiciones para que más gente cotice, para que los que vienen detrás sigan cotizando y entonces las cotizaciones pagan las pensiones”, aduce el economista.

Es necesario aclarar que esta reforma va de la mano de una reforma tributaria y de una reforma laboral. Esta última tendrá entre sus objetivos que más colombianos accedan a empleo digno, formalización, estabilidad y lógicamente coticen al sistema pensional.

Asimismo, se debe incrementar la capacidad de demanda de los colombianos para lo cual se debe aumentar la oferta productiva. “Hoy la oferta productiva está restringida a la línea de energía y a las rentas financieras, que solo generan 600 mil puestos de trabajo de 25 millones de personas que buscan trabajo. Para que eso sea cierto hay que ampliar la base productiva industrial y de servicios inteligentes, no financieros”, concluye Ricardo Bonilla.

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